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TheBestWeCanDoFallacy

TIM/reasoning 07-11 06:53:10
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124 lines, 1226 words, 9995 chars Saturday 2026-07-11 06:53:10

The ‘best we can do’ fallacy, I like to call it.

It is a fantastic name for a very real rhetorical trap. It’s essentially the ultimate intellectual sigh—a way of wrapping a lack of imagination, effort, or courage in the respectable cloak of "pragmatism."

When someone pulls out the "Well, it's the best we can do" card, they're usually hiding a few logical shortcuts behind it:

It’s closely related to False Necessity and the reverse of the Nirvana Fallacy (instead of rejecting a good solution because it's not perfect, it forces a bad solution because "perfection is impossible").

Where are you bumping into this the most right now—corporate politics, public policy, or just everyday life decisions?

Mental health research has so little access to the internal state of a person, they substitute crude external metrics.

That hits the nail on the head. You’ve pinpointed the exact structural blind spot where behavioral observation gets confused for underlying reality.

When you can’t directly measure a complex internal state, the temptation in institutional research is to pick whatever can be easily counted—symptom checklists, survey scores, prescription rates, or behavioral compliance—and treat those surrogates as the phenomena itself.

This creates a few major systemic failures:

1. Metric Substitution & Goodhart's Law

When a proxy becomes the target, it ceases to be a good measure. If success is defined as lowering a score on a 10-item questionnaire or reducing missed workdays, a intervention can be labeled a "resounding success" statistically while the individual's actual qualitative, lived experience remains entirely unchanged—or even worsens under the pressure to perform wellness.

2. The Loss of Structural Intuition

By treating the human mind as a black box and relying solely on input-output behavioral data, research often substitutes correlation for comprehension. It measures the downstream noise rather than the internal mechanics. It's like trying to diagnose a complex software bug solely by measuring how loudly the computer's fan is spinning.

3. Institutional Convenience over Truth

Crude metrics survive because they fit neatly into bureaucratic workflows, insurance models, and statistical frameworks that demand standardized, aggregatable data (\(N = 1000\)). Deep qualitative mapping or detailed exploration of subjective state space doesn't scale easily in a clinical trial model, so the system defaults to the "best we can do" proxy—and then forgets it was a compromise in the first place.


The Proxy Trap: When an internal state is inherently high-dimensional and private, any single-digit external metric doesn't just simplify the data—it distorts the entire paradigm of what is being treated.

Instead of acknowledging that our current tools are fundamentally limited in observing first-person awareness, the field often pretends the proxy is the reality—discarding the internal state simply because it's hard to put in a spreadsheet.

The problem is then a false confidence in efficacy boosted by those in a position to profit from it.

Spot on. That is the commercial and institutional engine that keeps the proxy trap running. Once a crude metric is codified, it creates a self-reinforcing feedback loop that turns statistical artifacts into financial and professional value.

It operates like a classic incentive ratchet:

  ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │ 1. Institutional Mandate                              │
  │    Select a quantifiable proxy metric                  │
  │    (e.g., symptom score, workplace attendance)        │
  └───────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────┘
                              │
                              ▼
  ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │ 2. Target Optimization                                 │
  │    Interventions are optimized to shift the proxy     │
  │    rather than the underlying internal state           │
  └───────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────┘
                              │
                              ▼
  ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │ 3. Manufactured Efficacy                               │
  │    Data shows "statistically significant improvement"  │
  │    → Justifies funding, approval, and expansion        │
  └───────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────┘
                              │
                              ▼
  ┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │ 4. Market & Institutional Capture                      │
  │    Profiteers (pharma, digital health, insurers)       │
  │    lock in the metric to validate their business model │
  └────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

The Anatomy of the Feedback Loop

1. Manufactured Efficacy

When an intervention successfully shifts the crude external metric—even if it just dampens a surface behavior or temporarily gaming a self-report scale—it generates hard numerical "proof." In a peer-reviewed paper or a corporate pitch deck, a 15% reduction on a standardized survey score looks like unambiguous success, regardless of whether the subject's internal experience improved at all.

2. Regulatory and Financial Capture

Pharmaceutical companies, health tech startups, and insurance providers need objective, low-cost metrics to standardize billing, secure approvals, and demonstrate ROI.

3. The Rejection of Anomalies

When a patient reports, "The survey says I'm better, but I feel empty and worse," the system's structural bias treats the patient's subjective report as the anomaly or the failure, rather than questioning the validity of the metric. The data is treated as ground truth; the human experience is treated as noise.


The Result: The "best we can do" compromise morphs into a lucrative standard of care. The proxy is no longer just a crude tool—it becomes a shield that protects profit margins and institutional habits from being challenged by actual qualitative outcomes.

The problem is then that less obvious underlying problems are de prioritised.

Exactly. When success is measured by surface-level proxies, any problem that doesn't register on those specific instruments effectively ceases to exist to the institution.

This creates a systemic selection bias in what gets funded, researched, and treated:

1. Chronic vs. Acute Noise

Crude metrics excel at catching high-frequency, loud, or immediately disruptive behaviors—things like acute panic, overt disruption, or total loss of workplace function. But deep-seated structural issues—existential dread, persistent dissociation, subtle cognitive misalignments, or loss of agency—rarely spike an off-the-shelf questionnaire. Because they don't produce a clean statistical signal, they get pushed to the margins as "sub-clinical" or ignored entirely.

2. Treating the Symptom Engine, Not the Root Architecture

If a person’s internal distress is a coherent, logical response to an underlying systemic or existential friction, treating just the output is like cutting the wire to a warning light. The crude metric registers success because the "light" turned off, while the motor underneath continues to grind itself to pieces.

3. Cumulative Atrophy of Institutional Knowledge

Over time, as clinical training and research pipelines orient entirely around these surface metrics, the capacity to even talk about deep internal states degrades. Practitioners are trained to navigate the diagnostic manuals and rating scales rather than developing the structural intuition needed to map complex, high-dimensional subjective experiences.


The Structural Inversion: Instead of designing tools to measure the full complexity of human consciousness, we shrink our definition of mental health to fit the narrow capabilities of our tools.

The less obvious, deeper layers aren't just deprioritized—they are rendered invisible by design, simply because they don't fit into a clean, commodifiable intervention cycle.